30-yr fixed at 6.47%, down from 6.52% last week and a full 37 basis points below this time last year.
Good morning,
Welcome to Issue #2. Every week, this newsletter puts real numbers from your market in your hands before your next client call. You will not find national headlines here. You will find Hillsborough, Pinellas, and Pasco data, talking points you can actually say out loud, and a rate snapshot that helps you frame the conversation. Let's get into it.
Agent Ammo
Your market stats, ready for client conversations.
For Your Sellers
Hillsborough County
|
Median Price
$430,000
0.0% YoY
|
Days on Market
36
days
|
Supply (Mos)
3.7
months
|
|
% of List
97.0%
received
|
Active Inventory
6,278
listings
|
Price Cuts
112
today
|
|
Listing line: "Pricing at or near list gets you 97 cents on the dollar and a 36-day close. We price it right the first time and we get there."
|
Pinellas County
|
Median Price
$476,200
+3.5% YoY
|
Days on Market
33
days
|
Supply (Mos)
3.7
months
|
|
% of List
95.8%
received
|
Active Inventory
7,275
listings
|
Price Cuts
120
today
|
|
Listing line: "Pinellas prices are up over three percent from last year and inventory is down 14%. If we list smart and list now, we are in the strongest position of the last twelve months."
|
Pasco County
|
Median Price
$476,200
+3.5% YoY
|
Days on Market
33
days
|
Supply (Mos)
4.0
months
|
|
% of List
96.9%
received
|
Active Inventory
4,207
listings
|
Price Cuts
142
today
|
|
Listing line: "Pasco is still an appreciation market on the single-family side, but the cut rate tells us buyers are selective. The right price gets a contract. The wrong price just grows the competition."
|
For Your Buyers
Hillsborough County
|
New Listings
2,270
this month
|
Active Inventory
6,278
listings
|
Price Cuts
112
today
|
|
Med. Days on Market
36
days
|
Pending Sales
1,380
this month
|
Closed Sales
1,830
this month
|
|
Buyer line: "Inventory is actually down over 13% from this time last year. Waiting for the market to open up is working against you right now."
|
Pinellas County
|
New Listings
2,058
this month
|
Active Inventory
1,958
listings
|
Price Cuts
120
today
|
|
Med. Days on Market
33
days
|
Pending Sales
1,369
this month
|
Closed Sales
1,557
this month
|
|
Buyer line: "There are 1,369 homes under contract in Pinellas right now in just the last four weeks. If your client is on the fence, someone else is not."
|
Pasco County
|
New Listings
1,344
this month
|
Active Inventory
1,362
listings
|
Price Cuts
142
today
|
|
Med. Days on Market
36
days
|
Pending Sales
925
this month
|
Closed Sales
1,073
this month
|
|
Buyer line: "Pasco is the most affordable of the three major counties right now, and new listings are down 12% from last year. The window here is open, not forever."
|
Regional Watch
Sarasota County
|
Median Price
$475,000
+2.2% YoY
|
Days on Market
50
days
|
Supply (Mos)
4.4
months
|
|
Active Inventory
5,248
listings
|
% of List
94.2%
received
|
Closed Sales
1,216
this month
|
|
The read: Sarasota had a strong May. Combined closed sales hit 1,216, up roughly 7.6% year-over-year, with both the SFH and condo segments posting gains. Active inventory is at 5,248 combined, down meaningfully from a year ago: SFH inventory fell 25.2% and condo inventory fell 13.2%. That kind of inventory compression with rising sales volume is a signal worth paying attention to. Sellers received 94.2% of list on the SFH side, and the median SFH price of $475,000 is up 2.2% year-over-year. If you work Sarasota or have clients looking south, the story right now is tightening supply meeting growing buyer activity. One line to use: "Sarasota inventory is down over 25% for single-family homes from this time last year, and sales are up. That combination does not last."
|
Ready-to-Use Content
This week's post you can steal. Copy it, tweak it, post it.
Hook: Over 370 price cuts hit the Pinellas and Pasco boards today alone. Here is what that number actually means.
Authority: I track the four-week Suncoast MLS data and Florida Realtors monthly stats every week so you have numbers you can use in front of clients.
Content: Price cuts are not a market crash signal. They are a pricing discipline signal. The homes selling at or above list in Hillsborough are getting 97 cents on the dollar in 36 days. The ones sitting are feeding the cut count. Buyers, meanwhile, are watching new inventory shrink across all three counties. The window to buy before competition returns is open right now.
CTA: Reply with your county and I will send you this week's one-page data snapshot to share with your clients.
Want this turned into a Reel script or graphic? Reply to this email and I'll send it over.
Send This to a Client
Mortgage Rates Likely to Stay High For Now as Markets Digest Warsh’s First Fed Meeting — It will take a while for the markets to fully digest this week's Fed meeting but the hawkish shift in the committee's projections will keep mortgage rates high for now.
Happening Around Tampa Bay
June 19: Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays, Tropicana Field, St. Pete. Three-game home series starting tonight. A perfect low-key reason to reach out to a client you have been meaning to reconnect with.
June 19: World Cup USA Watch Party, Jannus Live, St. Pete. Outdoor watch party for the U.S. at the World Cup. High energy, younger crowd. Great share for millennial buyer clients who are still on the fence about the St. Pete lifestyle.
June 19: Science After Dark, MOSI, Tampa. Adults-only evening at the Museum of Science and Industry. Send this to clients with kids who need a night out and a sitter excuse.
June 20: International Day of Yoga with SHACK Yoga and Sculpt, Hyde Park Village, Tampa. Free outdoor yoga in one of Tampa's most desirable neighborhoods. A natural touch point for health-conscious South Tampa clients or prospects.
June 20: Tampa Bay Juneteenth Festival, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa. A major community celebration. Worth sharing widely with your entire sphere as a moment to show up and connect.
June 20: Night Market at Outcast Brewing Company. Local artisans and craft beer in a neighborhood setting. A good share for buyer clients still figuring out what community looks like in Tampa Bay.
June 21: Father's Day Brunch at The Motor Enclave, Tampa. A premium experience for car-enthusiast dads. Forward this to any client or referral partner who fits that profile.
June 21: Dads Climb Free, Vertical Ventures, Tampa. Free climbing for dads with a paid child admission. Easy, fun share for buyer clients with young kids who want a Father's Day activity.
June 21: Beach Blonde Block Party Summer Kickoff, 3 Daughters Brewing, St. Pete. Summer kickoff at one of St. Pete's most beloved spots. Share this on social to remind your network that you know this city and live in it.
Rate Overview
The 30-year fixed came in at 6.47% this week, down 5 basis points from 6.52% last week, according to Freddie Mac. That is a modest move but the direction matters. We are now 37 basis points below where we were a year ago at 6.84%. The 10-year Treasury is sitting at 4.49%, and rate movement from here depends heavily on upcoming inflation data and Fed signals. On a $385,000 purchase in Pasco with 20% down, the difference between 6.84% and 6.47% is roughly $90 per month. That is real money your buyer feels every single month.
This Week’s Numbers
|
30-Yr Fixed
6.47%
down from 6.52% last week
|
15-Yr Fixed
5.81%
this week
|
10-Yr Treasury
4.49%
yield
|
|
One Year Ago
30-yr was 6.84%
Rates are lower than this time last year
|
|
What it means for your deals: "While rates are still elevated from where there were earlier this year, they are still lower they were last year. If your buyer is waiting for a better number this may be the best they see this year"
|
Have a Client Ready to Move?
Send them my way. I'll run their real numbers, no pressure, just clarity. Reply to this email or book a time directly.
That's the brief. If one number in here helps you win a listing or move a buyer off the fence this week, it did its job.
Talk soon,
Nate
Compliance
Rate information is sourced from Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey and reflects national averages for informational purposes only. This is not a quote, an offer, or commitment to lend. Rates and terms vary by borrower and are subject to change. NMLS #2130803. Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation NMLS #2289. Equal Housing Lender.