30-yr fixed at 6.52% this week, up from 6.48% last week and well below the 6.85% buyers were facing a year ago.
Good morning,
Your clients are watching the news and asking questions. You need clean, local numbers to answer them. This week the data tells a familiar story in Hillsborough and Pinellas, with a wrinkle in Pasco worth paying attention to on both sides of the table. Pull what you need below and take it straight into your next conversation.
Agent Ammo
For Your Sellers
Hillsborough County
|
Median Price
$420,000
YoY: +0.7%
|
Days on Market
34
days
|
Supply (Mos)
3.7
months
|
|
% of List
96.9%
received
|
Active Inventory
6,220
listings
|
Price Cuts
3.9%
of listings
|
|
Listing line: "Hillsborough sellers are still getting within a point of asking price, and fewer than 4 in 100 listings needed a cut this week. If we price you correctly from day one, you won't be one of them."
|
Pinellas County
|
Median Price
$469,000
1.1% YoY
|
Days on Market
35
days
|
Supply (Mos)
3.7
months
|
|
% of List
94.9%
received
|
Active Inventory
7,330
listings
|
Price Cuts
4.4%
of listings
|
|
Listing line: "Pinellas prices are up year over year and supply is tight, but buyers are negotiating harder. Price it to the data and you get paid. Price above it and you will feel it."
|
Pasco County
|
Median Price
$365,000
-3.9% YoY
|
Days on Market
43
days
|
Supply (Mos)
3.8
months
|
|
% of List
96.5%
received
|
Active Inventory
4,102
listings
|
Price Cuts
4.2%
of listings
|
|
Listing line: "Year over year the median is softer, but sellers who price to today's market are still closing above 96 cents on the dollar. The data supports listing if we get the price right."
|
For Your Buyers
Hillsborough County
|
New Listings
2,432
this month
|
Active Inventory
2,206
listings
|
Price Cuts
3.9%
of listings
|
|
Med. Days on Market
34
days
|
Pending Sales
1,640
this month
|
Closed Sales
1,624
this month
|
|
Buyer line: "The deals that exist in Hillsborough right now are on homes that already cut their price. We know exactly which ones they are. Let's go look."
|
Pinellas County
|
New Listings
2,174
this month
|
Active Inventory
2,003
listings
|
Price Cuts
4.4%
of listings
|
|
Med. Days on Market
35
days
|
Pending Sales
1,369
this month
|
Closed Sales
1,662
this month
|
|
Buyer line: "In Pinellas, the condo market gives you breathing room right now. More time, more supply, more options. If a condo fits your life, this may be the best window in two years."
|
Pasco County
|
New Listings
1,449
this month
|
Active Inventory
1,322
listings
|
Price Cuts
4.2%
of listings
|
|
Med. Days on Market
43
days
|
Pending Sales
922
this month
|
Closed Sales
984
this month
|
|
Buyer line: "If you were priced out of Pasco last year, look again. The median is almost $15,000 lower than it was twelve months ago."
|
Regional Watch
Manatee County
|
Median Price
$492,500
+6.1% YoY
|
Days on Market
44
days
|
Supply (Mos)
4.6
months
|
|
Active Inventory
4,511
listings
|
Price Cuts
N/A
of listings
|
Closed Sales
1,011
this month
|
|
The read: Manatee stands out from the rest of the region this month. The SFH median hit $492,500, up 6.1% year over year, making it the strongest price appreciation story in the Tampa Bay area right now. Inventory dropped nearly 10% from last year on the SFH side, and condo inventory fell 12.9%, so there are fewer homes to compete for. Buyers who wanted more time and more options are finding Manatee tighter than they expected. Combined, 1,011 homes closed in April across all property types. The agent line for a buyer relocating from out of state: "Manatee is appreciating faster than anywhere else in the region, and inventory keeps falling. If your client needs to be in Bradenton, waiting is not a strategy."
|
Ready-to-Use Content
This week's post you can steal. Copy it, tweak it, post it.
Hook: Nearly 1 in 20 listings in Pinellas already cut their price this week. Here is how to find them.
Authority: I track the weekly and monthly data across Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco, and Manatee every week so you don't have to.
Content: Price cuts are running 3.9% to 4.4% across the tri-county area. Pending sales are strong in all three counties. Manatee just posted a 6.1% price gain year over year. The market is moving, and the data tells you exactly where to focus.
CTA: Comment "CUTS" and I'll send you the full county breakdown for your next client conversation.
Want this turned into a Reel script or graphic? Reply to this email and I'll send it over.
Send This to a Client
How the 2026 World Cup Will Impact Short-Term Rental Investors in the U.S. — Worth forwarding to any client who owns or is considering an investment property in Tampa Bay.
The piece makes a clear case that for short-term rental investors this event represents a rare, predictable demand surge, and that the real opportunity extends well beyond the matches themselves as major international events often reshape tourism demand and create new travel patterns that last for years.
A good conversation starter for investor clients this week.
Happening Around Tampa Bay
World Cup USA Watch Party at Al Lang Stadium, St. Pete, June 12. Great foot traffic in the downtown market if you have listings nearby.
St. Pete Beach Seafood Festival on Corey Ave, June 12-14. Three days of buyers and browsers walking one of the most desirable zip codes in Pinellas.
Beetlejuice at the Straz Center, Tampa, June 12-14. Share it with clients who just moved to the area. It's a good reminder why they chose Tampa Bay.
Rate Overview
Rates nudged up 4 basis points this week to 6.52% on the 30-year fixed, tracking the 10-year Treasury which is holding at 4.53%. The move is modest and the bigger story is where we stand versus a year ago: buyers are looking at a rate nearly a third of a point lower than they faced in June 2025. On a $400,000 loan, that spread translates to roughly $75 less per month than a year ago. That is a real number to put in front of a hesitant buyer.
This Week’s Numbers
|
30-Yr Fixed
6.52%
up 4bps from 6.52% last week
|
15-Yr Fixed
5.84%
this week
|
10-Yr Treasury
4.53%
yield
|
|
One Year Ago
30-yr was 6.85%
Rates are lower than this time last year
|
|
What it means for your deals: "Rates are up four points from last week, but your buyer is saving about $75 a month compared to someone who bought this same house a year ago. The trend is still in your favor."
|
Have a Client Ready to Move?
Send them my way. I'll run their real numbers, no pressure, just clarity. Reply to this email or book a time directly.
Thanks for reading the first issue of Nate's Update. I'll be in your inbox every week with the data that matters. Reach out anytime if you want to talk through a specific deal or run numbers for a client.
Talk soon,
Nate
Compliance
Rate information is sourced from Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey and reflects national averages for informational purposes only. This is not a quote, an offer, or commitment to lend. Rates and terms vary by borrower and are subject to change. NMLS #2130803. Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation NMLS #2289. Equal Housing Lender.