Good morning,
Summer is here and the numbers are moving. Prices are holding in Hillsborough and Pasco, Pinellas just posted a 5.5% year-over-year jump in median price, and sellers across all three counties are cutting prices at a pace worth paying attention to. Here is what the data looks like this week and what you can say with it today.
Agent Ammo
Your market stats, ready for client conversations.
For Your Sellers
Stat | Hillsborough | Pinellas | Pasco |
|---|---|---|---|
Median Price | $445,155 | $480,000 | $390,000 |
YoY Change | +1.2% | +5.5% | +1.3% |
Days on Market | 31 | 29 | 40 |
Months of Supply | 3.7 | 3.5 | 4.1 |
% of List | 97.2% | 96.1% | 96.4% |
Active Inventory | 4,418 | 2,987 | 3,161 |
Price Cuts (today) | 166 | 78 | 136 |
Listing line: “Across all three counties, sellers who price right are still getting 96 to 97 cents on the dollar in under six weeks. The ones cutting price are the ones who did not."
For Your Buyers
Stat | Hillsborough | Pinellas | Pasco |
|---|---|---|---|
New Listings | 1,730 | 1,090 | 1,141 |
Active Inventory | 4,418 | 2,987 | 3,161 |
Price Cuts (today) | 166 | 78 | 136 |
Med. Days on Market | 31 | 29 | 40 |
Pending Sales | 1,259 | 845 | 869 |
Closed Sales | 1,457 | 975 | 904 |
Buyer line: “Pasco has more price cuts today than Hillsborough and Pinellas combined. If your buyer is flexible on zip code, this is the best spot to find a deal in the Tampa Bay area right now.”
Regional Watch
Stat | Manatee |
|---|---|
Median Price | $460,000 |
YoY Change | -3.8% |
Days on Market | 47 |
Months of Supply | 4.4 |
Active Inventory | 2,832 |
% of List | 95.4% |
Closed Sales | 782 |
The read: “Manatee prices are pulling back, pending sales are surging, and inventory is shrinking. Buyers who act now in Manatee are getting in before the demand catches up with the data."
Ready-to-Use Content
This week's post you can steal. Copy it, tweak it, post it.
Onscreen Title: Nearly 47% More Sellers Than Buyers In The U.S. Right Now. Buyers — That's Your Window.
According to June housing data, there are an estimated 46.9% more home sellers than buyers in the U.S.
Let that land for a second.
For every 100 buyers in the market right now, there are nearly 147 sellers competing for their attention.
That is the definition of leverage.
When there are more sellers than buyers, sellers negotiate.
They cut prices. They cover closing costs. They pay for rate buydowns.
Listing prices are down 2.4% year over year — the seventh straight month of declines.
And first-time buyers drove 35% of May sales. The highest share since June 2020.
The buyers who are showing up right now are getting deals that didn't exist two years ago.
The ones sitting on the sidelines are watching the window.
Get pre-approved. Know your number. Show up as the buyer sellers are waiting for.
Want this turned into a Reel script or graphic? Reply to this email and I'll send it over.
Send This to a Client
This piece from Moving to Florida Guide pulls in perspectives from real estate experts on where Florida home prices are headed for the rest of 2026. It covers the statewide median hitting an all-time high, the inventory picture, and why correctly priced homes are still selling fast. Worth forwarding to any client who is second-guessing whether now is the right time to buy or sell in Florida.
Happening Around Tampa Bay
July 17: Rhythm & Hues: An Alleyway Art Show at the Rialto Theatre Alleyway.
July 17: St. Pete-Inspired Trivia Night with I Love the Burg at Voodoo Brewing Co.
July 17-18: Tampa Bay Rodeo & Family Festival at Hillsborough County Fairgrounds.
July 18-19: SharkCon 12 at Florida State Fairgrounds.
July 19: Family Day at Yuengling Draft Haus & Kitchen.
July 19: FIFA World Cup Final Watch Party at Armature Works.
July 18: Saturday Morning Market at 212 3rd St. N.
July 18-19: 37th Annual Cool Art Show by PAVA at St. Petersburg Coliseum.
July 19: Tampa Bay Ice Cream Festival at St. Pete Pier.
Have a Client Ready to Move?
Thanks for reading this week. If any of these numbers spark a question or you want to talk through what they mean for a specific deal, just reply and I am happy to dig in with you
Talk soon,
Nate Dahlin
Mortgage Advisor, NMLS #2130803
Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation, NMLS #2289
Compliance
Rate information is sourced from the Optimal Blue Mortgage Market Indices (OBMMI) via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) and reflects actual locked rates across approximately 35% of U.S. mortgage transactions. Data is updated daily and provided for informational purposes only. This is not a quote, an offer, or commitment to lend. Rates and terms vary by borrower and are subject to change. NMLS #2130803. Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation NMLS #2289. Equal Housing Lender.