This week: 30-yr fixed at 6.474% this week, up 6 bps from 6.411% last week. VA buyers are locking at 6.093%.
Good afternoon,
Happy Freedom Friday. While your clients are at the parade or the boat parade on the Riverwalk, deals are still moving across Hillsborough, Pinellas, and Pasco. Sellers are still getting close to asking price in all three counties, but price cuts are climbing and buyers have more to choose from than they did a year ago. Here is what the numbers say, and what you can do with them.
Agent Ammo
Your market stats, ready for client conversations.
For Your Sellers
Stat | Hillsborough | Pinellas | Pasco |
|---|---|---|---|
Median Price | $430,000 | $476,200 | $385,000 |
YoY Change | 0.0% | +3.5% | +2.5% |
Days on Market | 36 | 33 | 36 |
Months of Supply | 3.7 | 3.7 | 4.0 |
% of List | 97.0% | 95.8% | 96.9% |
Active Inventory | 4,455 | 3,210 | 3,190 |
Price Cuts (Today) | 92 | 56 | 73 |
Hillsborough County
The median sale price is holding at exactly $430,000, flat year-over-year. Sellers here are not giving ground on price, but they are waiting longer for it. Median time to contract is 36 days, up 12.5% from a year ago. Set that expectation on day one.
Sellers are still receiving 97.0% of original list price. That means correct pricing still works. Overpriced listings are the ones generating those 92 price cuts sitting in the market right now.
Pinellas County
Pinellas leads the tri-county area with a median sale price of $476,200, up 3.5% year-over-year. That is meaningful appreciation in a market where several Florida metros are seeing prices soften.
Only 56 SFH price cuts are active today on 1,099 listings. That is a 5.1% cut rate, the lowest of the three counties. Demand is holding up better here relative to supply.
Pasco County
The median sale price is $385,000, up 2.5% year-over-year. Pasco is the most affordable of the three counties, and that gap with Hillsborough and Pinellas continues to attract buyers.
73 price cuts are active on 1,326 listings today, a 5.5% cut rate. Sellers who price to the current market close faster. Sellers who do not become a price cut statistic.
Listing line: “Across all three counties, sellers who price correctly the first time are still getting 97 cents on the dollar and contracting within five weeks. The ones generating price cuts are the ones who did not."
For Your Buyers
Stat | Hillsborough | Pinellas | Pasco |
|---|---|---|---|
New Listings (m) | 1,748 | 1,184 | 1,122 |
Active Inventory (4w) | 1,963 | 1,099 | 1,326 |
Price Cuts (today) | 92 | 56 | 73 |
Med. Days on Market (m) | 36 | 33 | 36 |
Pending Sales (4w) | 1,373 | 932 | 889 |
Closed Sales (m) | 1,442 | 945 | 902 |
Hillsborough County
There are 1,963 active SFH listings in Hillsborough in this four-week window, and 92 of them cut their price today alone. Buyers have real leverage to negotiate, especially on anything that has been sitting past 36 days.
New listings are down 14.9% year-over-year. Fewer homes are coming on. The 1,963 active listings available now represent a window that will not stay this wide indefinitely.
Pinellas County
Pinellas has the tightest market in the tri-county area. Only 1,099 active SFH listings and 932 pending sales over four weeks. Buyers have fewer options here, and what is priced right moves quickly.
That said, 56 price cuts hit today. In a constrained supply market, a price cut on a good home in Pinellas is a serious opportunity worth moving on.
Pasco County
Pasco has 1,326 active SFH listings and 73 price cuts today, the highest cut rate in the tri-county area at 5.5%. There is room to negotiate in this market right now.
The median sale price at $385,000 is $91,000 below Pinellas and $45,000 below Hillsborough. For a buyer who gets priced out of either of those counties, Pasco is not a consolation prize, it is a strategic move.
Buyer line: “In all three counties, there are 221 homes that cut their price today alone. If your buyer is on the fence, show them a price-cut property this week while sellers are still motivated and rates are not any lower than they are right now."
Regional Watch
Stat | Hernando |
|---|---|
Median Price | $315,000 |
YoY Change | -7.3% |
Days on Market | 93 |
Months of Supply | 4.5 |
Active Inventory | 1,540 |
% of List | 96.3% received |
Closed Sales | 379 | YoY: -3.8% |
Hernando County is flying under the radar for good reason. The median sale price dropped 7.3% year-over-year to $315,000, making it the most affordable SFH market in the broader Tampa Bay region covered in this newsletter. Homes are sitting at a median of 93 days on market, nearly three times the pace in Pinellas, which puts buyers firmly in control of negotiations. Months of supply is 4.5, technically a balanced-to-buyer market, yet new pending sales jumped 15.9% year-over-year. That is a meaningful surge in buyer interest even as prices soften, and it suggests the bottom may not be far off. Sellers are still getting 96.3% of list price on average, so the market is soft but not broken.
Ready-to-Use
Past-Client Equity Check-In
There's a historic amount of trapped equity sitting in homes right now and most agents aren't proactively talking to past clients about it. This is a reason to connect that feels like a service not a sales pitch.
Part 1: Send this to your Past Client - Copy & Paste
Hi [First Name] — it's [Your Name]. I was reviewing the [neighborhood] market this week and your name came up in my notes.
Homes like yours have gained a meaningful amount of value since you bought. A lot of my past clients don't realize how much equity they're sitting on — or the options it opens up, whether that's a move, an investment property, or just smarter planning.
No agenda here. If you're curious what your place is worth today, I'm happy to pull a quick, no-pressure estimate for you. Want me to?
Part 2: Keep This - Talking Points for when they reply
-Lead with their goal, not the number. Ask: "If the equity were there, what would you want it to do for you?"
-Three common unlocks to mention: trading up or down, pulling a down payment for an investment property, or consolidating higher-interest debt.
-Bring in your lender early: "I work with a loan officer who can run the actual numbers so we're not guessing — want me to loop them in?"
-Always end with a soft next step, never a hard ask: "No rush at all — want me to send over a quick equity snapshot this week?"
Happening Around Tampa Bay
July 3-5: Sea to Shining Sea, The Florida Aquarium, Tampa. A festive long-weekend exhibit your clients with kids will want to know about.
July 3-5: Marlon Wayans, Funny Bone Comedy Club, Tampa. A great client appreciation idea for the holiday weekend.
July 4: Red, White and Blue Fest with Ketel One Vodka, JW Marriott Clearwater Beach, Clearwater Beach. A ticketed Fourth of July event on the water. Perfect for out-of-town guests visiting prospective buyers.
July 4: The Heights District Fourth of July Celebration at Armature Works, Armature Works, Tampa. Family-friendly celebration in one of Tampa's most active mixed-use neighborhoods. Good to mention to relocating clients exploring walkable areas.
July 4: July 4th Boat Parade, Tampa Riverwalk, Tampa. A free, only-in-Tampa way to spend the Fourth. Share this one widely.
July 4: Saturday Morning Market, 212 3rd St. N., St. Petersburg. The beloved St. Pete market runs even on Independence Day. Worth flagging for clients exploring the downtown St. Pete lifestyle.
July 4: The Fourth, Celebrating America 250, Spa Beach, St. Pete Pier, St. Petersburg. A major waterfront Fourth of July event marking America's 250th. Big crowd, great energy, and a reminder of why people move here.
July 4: Red, White and Boozy Adults-Only Party, TradeWinds Resort Cabana Bar, St. Pete Beach. A ticketed adults-only option right on the Gulf.
July 5: After the Fourth Cleanup at Upham Beach, Upham Beach, St. Pete Beach. A community volunteer event the morning after. Forward to clients who care about the neighborhood and want to get involved quickly.
July 5: Lealman Farmers Market, 3890 55th Ave. N., St. Petersburg. A neighborhood market in Lealman, a part of Pinellas County worth knowing as an agent. Good context for clients looking for an authentic local experience off the beaten path.
Rate Overview
The 30-yr conforming rate ticked up 6 basis points this week to 6.474%, driven by the 10-yr Treasury holding at 4.48% while markets waited on the June jobs report.
The 10-year note held around 4.48% as investors awaited the June jobs report for clarity on the Fed's policy outlook.
This Week’s Numbers
Loan Type | Rate |
|---|---|
30-yr Conforming | 6.474% |
30-yr FHA | 6.268% |
30-yr VA | 6.093% |
30-yr USDA | 6.269% |
30-yr Jumbo | 6.522% |
15-yr Conforming | 5.692% |
10-yr Treasury | 4.48% |
Rate data sourced from Optimal Blue Mortgage Market Indices (OBMMI) via FRED. Reflects actual locked rates across approximately 35% of U.S. mortgage transactions. Updated daily. Not a quote or commitment to lend.
Have a Client Ready to Move?
Send them my way. I'll run their real numbers, no pressure, just clarity. Reply to this email or book a time directly.
That's the brief. If one number in here helps you win a listing or move a buyer off the fence this week, it did its job.
Talk soon,
Nate
Compliance
Rate information is sourced from the Optimal Blue Mortgage Market Indices (OBMMI) via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) and reflects actual locked rates across approximately 35% of U.S. mortgage transactions. Data is updated daily and provided for informational purposes only. This is not a quote, an offer, or commitment to lend. Rates and terms vary by borrower and are subject to change. NMLS #2130803. Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation NMLS #2289. Equal Housing Lender.