Good morning,
Wage growth is slowing, job numbers just missed last week, and the Fed can't decide what to do next. If that sounds like chaos, here's the reframe: this is when the agents who stay close to their pipeline and keep showing up win the business. Markets like this separate the reactive from the prepared, and you're already ahead just by paying attention to what's actually happening in Tampa Bay instead of the national noise.
Agent Ammo
Your market stats, ready for client conversations.
For Your Sellers
Stat | Hillsborough | Pinellas | Pasco |
|---|---|---|---|
Median $ | $445,155 | $480,000 | $390,000 |
YoY % | +1.2% | +5.5% | 1.3% |
DoM | 31 | 29 | 40 |
Supply (m) | 3.7 | 3.5 | 4.1 |
% of List | 97.2% | 96.1% | 96.4% |
Inventory | 4,418 | 2,987 | 3,161 |
Cuts (d) | 104 | 66 | 89 |
Sellers, the tri-county market is holding steady, not cracking. Hillsborough prices are up slightly with inventory still under the balanced range, so well-priced homes aren't sitting. Pinellas is the standout, up 5.5% year over year with supply down nearly 30%, giving sellers real leverage on price. Pasco is more competitive with higher supply, so pricing and presentation need to be sharp from day one.
Across all three counties, correctly priced listings are getting 96 to 97 cents on the dollar and going under contract in under 40 days. The lesson for your sellers is simple: price to the comps, not to hope.
For Your Buyers
Stat | Hillsborough | Pinellas | Pasco |
|---|---|---|---|
New Listings | 1,730 | 1,090 | 1,141 |
Inventory | 4,418 | 1,107 | 3,161 |
Cuts (d) | 104 | 66 | 89 |
Med. DoM | 31 | 29 | 40 |
Pending (4w) | 1,168 | 828 | 882 |
Closed (m) | 1,457 | 975 | 904 |
Buyers, the picture shifts by county. Hillsborough is giving buyers real selection with over 1,800 active listings and fresh price cuts hitting daily, so it's worth revisiting homes that missed their first ask. Pinellas is the tightest, inventory down nearly 27% year over year and homes going under contract in 29 days, the fastest pace in the tri-county area. Hesitation there has a real cost. Pasco offers the most breathing room, with the longest days on market and the deepest supply, so buyers who need value and space have time to be deliberate.
The takeaway for your buyers is that Pinellas has already moved past the market they remember from a couple years ago, so waiting on it to loosen up further isn't a strategy.
Regional Watch
Stat | Lakeland |
|---|---|
Avg Price | $371,350 |
Days on Market | 78 |
Months of Supply | 3.76 |
Active Inventory | 1,478 |
% of List | 98.0% |
Closed Sales | 363 |
Lakeland is heating up. Single-family sales jumped nearly 18% year over year to 363 closings in June, the biggest surge in the region. Inventory stays tight at 3.76 months of supply, and sellers are getting 98% of list price despite a longer 78-day time on market. Buyers are showing up, they're just taking their time to close.
Ready-to-Use Content
This week's post you can steal. Copy it, tweak it, post it.
Rates Hit 6.78% — The Highest Of 2026. Here's The Buyer Perspective Nobody Is Giving You.
The 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.78% the week of July 23rd, according to Freddie Mac.
The highest point of 2026.
And a year ago — rates were 6.63%. Barely different.
Here's what that comparison tells you.
Rates have not dramatically worsened from where they were 12 months ago.
But home sales in that same period? Improving. Affordability index? Up. Inventory? Rising.
The buyers who bought a year ago at 6.63% are sitting on equity right now.
Freddie Mac's chief economist said it directly in July:
"Housing affordability is more favorable and housing inventory continues to rise — the backdrop for homebuyers is modestly improving."
Rates are high. That's real. But the backdrop is better than the number suggests.
More inventory. Motivated sellers. Concessions available. And a rate you can refinance when things shift.
The rate is today's price. The home is forever.
The July jobs report came in negative, with 23,000 jobs lost and wage growth at a cycle low.
This piece breaks down what that means for a potential September Fed rate hike and whether one more tame CPI report could keep rates where they are. Forward it to any client asking whether mortgage rates are about to move.
Happening Around Tampa Bay
Aug 13
Makers & Shakers Market at St. Pete Distillery — local artisan shopping
Aug 14
Monster Jam Freestyle Mania at Benchmark International Arena — family crowd draw
Community Mural Unveiling and Paint Party, St. Petersburg — neighborhood connection
Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays — easy client invite, Tropicana Field
Aug 15
Monster Jam Freestyle Mania at Benchmark International Arena — weekend run continues
Motley Crue at MIDFLORIDA Credit Union Amphitheatre — big-name concert night
Rides By The River Exotic Cars at Armature Works — Tampa car enthusiasts
Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays — second game of the series
Saturday Morning Market, St. Petersburg — Pinellas lifestyle staple
Menagerie at The Museum 2026 at The James Museum — St. Pete arts crowd
Aug 16
Monster Jam Freestyle Mania at Benchmark International Arena — final day
Water Street Sunday Market — Tampa urban crowd
Have a Client Ready to Move?
Send them my way. I'll run their real numbers, no pressure, just clarity. Reply to this email or book a time directly.
Talk soon,
Nate
Compliance
Rate information is sourced from the Optimal Blue Mortgage Market Indices (OBMMI) via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) and reflects actual locked rates across approximately 35% of U.S. mortgage transactions. Data is updated daily and provided for informational purposes only. This is not a quote, an offer, or commitment to lend. Rates and terms vary by borrower and are subject to change. NMLS #2130803. Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation NMLS #2289. Equal Housing Lender.